EAST SURRY WEATHER BLOG

A LOOK BACK AT FEBRUARY 2012

2012-03-01T15:03:00.002-05:00

HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN DOWNEAST MAINE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.... SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NOW LIKELY FOR THE BLUE HILL PENINSULA....

2012-03-01T14:13:00.000-05:00

Updated snowfall forecast as the storm is looking to track closer to the Maine coast this evening... Snow will fall heavy at times into the early morning hours of Friday.... I'm upping my snowfall forecast now for a widespread 8-10" snowfall with isolated 14" amounts from Blue Hill on south to Deer Isle... This will likely be the most significant snow storm of this winter season...

NE winds are expected to increase this afternoon and evening as the storm intensifies in the Gulf of Maine... Winds up to 35mph especially along the coast will cause significant blowing and drifting snow.... Local whiteouts possible through Friday morning....

This storm will have a high impact for southern and central Hancock County southwestward down the Maine coast... To the east... Snow will be lighter and I'm expecting widespread 4-8" snowfall across coastal Washington county... with 3-5" from Bangor to Calias.

M.Jezak

MODERATE SNOW STORM TO HIT WESTERN DOWNEAST MAINE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... MUCH LESS SNOW FOR BANGOR NORTH AND EAST...

2012-02-29T20:26:00.001-05:00

Models continue to trend slightly more north on the storm track... this puts a good portion of SW Hancock County in line for a significant snowfall... The highest totals on the order of 7-10" will fall from a line from Blue Hill to Castine on South... Look for 5-7" in the Ellsworth to Bucksport and MDI areas... 4-6" in the Bangor area on south...

I updated my snowfall map to push up the totals by 1-2" from my afternoon forecast...

Stay tuned for more updates through the evening...

M. Jezak

SNOWSTORM ON ITS WAY FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... NEXT STORM BRINGS SNOW TO RAIN AND STRONG GALES BY SATURDAY... BITTER COLD RETURNS FOR 1ST WEEK OF MARCH...

2012-02-29T12:43:00.001-05:00

A powerful storm is pounding much of the eastern US this Wednesday... bringing severe weather and tornadoes to a wide swath of the middle Tennessee Valley eastward to VA... To the north heavy snow and near blizzard conditions stretch from Lower Michigan east to central New York... This storm is pressing eastward into western New England today and will be spreading a burst of heavy snow for much of Southern and central New England for the afternoon and evening rush hour...

Here in Maine a strong cold dome of Canadian high pressure continues to keep this storm at bay for the near future... Sunny skies with temperatures in the low 30's were common place across Downeast early this afternoon...

By this evening high clouds will begin to build across Downeast Maine as new Low pressure begins to form and intensify off the New Jersey coast... I have to admit that this is not a good track for significant snowfall across much of Downeast Maine but combined with a decent moisture feed off the Atlantic... I think we will be able to squeeze out a moderate snowfall... Temperatures will fall back to the 20's overnight...

Snow arrive after midnight for far SW areas... Camden to Deer Isle then make it into Blue Hill to Castine by 5AM... Ellsworth to MDI by 7AM... Snow fall steady all day Thursday along with gusty NE winds to 35mph at times... Look for considerable blowing and drifting of snow on Thursday... Highs in the 20's to near 30...

Snowfall
Camden to Deer Isle: 8-10"
Blue Hill to Castine: 5-7"
Ellsworth to MDI: 4-6"
Bangor: 2-4"

Another snow to rain and high wind event for Saturday... I'll have more later...

MODERATE SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AM...

2012-02-28T19:39:00.000-05:00

Models continue to trend for a significant snow storm for late Wednesday night into Friday morning... Unlike snowstorms we have seen this winter... this is expected to be a long duration... mostly all snow event... Snow will overspread the Downeast region during the wee morning hours of Thursday and continue at varying intensity into Friday morning... Even with the storm track still is not set in stone... I am feeling more confident that a moderate to heavy snow event is in the cards for Downeast Maine...

Here is the latest model forecast

Time                            Liquid                  Snowfall            snow depth

7AM THUR                   0.09"                     1.0"                    1.0"
7PM THUR                   0.26"                     2.6"                    3.6"
7AM FRI                    0.26" - 0.35"          3.8" - 5.3"           7.4" - 8.9"
Storm total                 0.61" - 0.71"          7.4" - 8.9"

Winter storm watches will likely be posted for Hancock County on Wednesday... Stay tuned!

SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD DOWNEAST MAINE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AM... SUNNY AND WINDY ON TUESDAY... NEXT STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... STAY TUNED.

2012-02-27T14:09:00.000-05:00

Here is my latest map for tonight's snow event... This really does not look to be all that significant... but considering the snow less winter we have been having.... 1-2" of snow will be something to write about...

Snow should end by Tuesday AM... (7-9AM) from west to east) then a sunny breezy and cool Tuesday with temperatures mostly in the 20's...

I'll post more on Wednesday nights / Thursdays storm later...

MAJOR SNOWSTORM ENDING FOR FAR NORTHERN MAINE... MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ON THE DOWNEAST COAST... COLDER BY SUNDAY AND VERY WINDY...

2012-02-25T08:53:00.000-05:00

Well has been the case all this winter... the intense storm that moved across the coastal waters south of Maine early this Saturday morning allowed enough mild air to penetrate the Downeast coast with precipitation being mixed snow... rain and sleet... this kept the snowfall totals to under 1" for most of the area... For barometer watchers this was the most impressive storm so far this winter with a minimum pressure of 28.87"Hg (977.7mb) measured around 2:45AM this morning...

As for the storm stats here at East Surry... Snowfall totaled 0.7"... Liquid 0.93" for one of the biggest precip events of 2012 so far...

Here is a map of this mornings snowfall...

JEZAK

WINTERY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR TONIGHT... WINDY AND COLDER THIS WEEKEND... SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT...

2012-02-24T20:35:00.000-05:00

Here is my latest snowfall forecast for Downeast Maine... This will be a big snowstorm for the central Maine highlands and for Northern Maine with up to a foot of snow falling...

JEZAK

LATE FEBRUARY SNOW COVER... LOOKS MORE LIKE EARLY APRIL... SHOULD LOOK LIKE WINTER BY SATURDAY MORNING.

2012-02-23T19:21:00.000-05:00

Here is the current snow pack map of much of Hancock County... Today's rainfall totaled 0.40" here at East Surry with nearly 0.5" falling in Blue Hill... This recent rain continued to cause the current snow pack to recede with the only snow pack left on the Blue Hill Peninsula confined to parts of Surry and North Blue Hill ( generally at elevations over 200 feet...

JEZAK

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING... MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK AND PRECIP TYPES...

2012-02-23T18:00:00.000-05:00

Models still struggling greatly this evening in trying to predict how the Friday storm will evolve for Downeast Maine. Boundary layer temps near the coast seem problematic for snow... but I could see us getting into a significant sleet event by Friday evening...

Here is my map for snow / sleet going into Saturday morning... I'll post updates later tonight or Friday morning as this is still a very much developing situation...

JEZAK

A COMPLEX END TO THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD ON NEXT FEW SYSTEMS... COLDER BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...

2012-02-22T14:33:00.001-05:00

A gray and snowy start to this Ash Wednesday... A light coating of snow fell late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... Here at East Surry 0.1" of snow fell but up to 0.5" fell over parts of the higher terrain of Surry and Blue Hill...

As of mid-day mostly cloudy skies were common across the area... Temperatures remained mild with readings in the lower to mid 40's...

Look for a mostly cloudy night tonight... Lows will settle back to around freezing... Some light mixed rain and snow is possible to develop late at night... Again I'm not going for any significant accumulations... generally less than 1/2 an inch...

Low pressure moves from the Eastern Great Lakes to Maine on Thursday with any morning light snow changing to rain early on... This should be a wetter system than the one from this morning (0.06") bringing up to a quarter of an inch of mostly rain to Downeast during the day on Thursday... Temperatures again mild (by February standards) in the 40's...

Here is where the forecast gets complicated... Modes develop a possible significant storm by late Thursday over the Ohio Valley then push it eastward on Friday... The possible tracks varry considerably from a storm moving well north and west of Maine (bringing a warm rainstorm to most of the state along with gusty SE winds) to a southern track with the storm moving across the Gulf of Maine ( in this case providing the area with a potential snowstorm...)

Still too early to tell on the track... based on the trend this winter I'm thinking this will be an "inside runner" bringing more rain than snow to Downeast... but just maybe we might get lucky this time and get a snowstorm... I'm hoping...

There after... cold high pressure will build down from Canada providing Maine with yet another blast of brief Winter chill... Cold on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the low 30's (SAT) and 20's (SUN) and lows nearing 10 by Sunday night... It will also be windy this weekend so get ready for the return of cold wind chills... maybe to -10 by Sunday...

Next storm (which may be a snowstorm) looks to arrive Monday night into Tuesday of next week... Lets hope...

Mike Jezak

RAINY FRIDAY... WARMTH AND MELTING SNOW MAKES IT LOOK AND FEEL MORE LIKE APRIL... COOLER BUT SUNNY FOR THE WEEKEND...

2012-02-17T10:26:00.000-05:00

Our recent storm is bringing mostly rain to much of Downeast and central Maine this Friday morning... Temperatures have warmed from the upper 30's to low 40's across the region with light Southerly breezes...

Look for periods of rain to continue for much of the day... Temperatures will continue in the 40's..

Skies will clear out tonight... Lows fall back into the low 30's near the coast and upper 20's inland... Watch for some black ice later tonight...

Partly to mostly sunny this weekend... Temperatures will be back to more seasonable levels... highs in the 30's Lows in the teens to lower 20's..

Big storm forms in the Mid-Atlantic this weekend... brings 3-10" of snow across much of VA to lower NJ... This storm will stay on a West to East track so New England remains dry and storm free until at least late next week...

Mike Jezak

OUR WINTER ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES... MILD AIR REPLACING THE SUB-ZERO WEEKEND BLAST...

2012-02-14T14:32:00.000-05:00

Mild are is once again invading the far north country this afternoon... After a sunny and pleasant morning... skies have turned cloudy this St. Valentine's Day afternoon... temperatures were in the upper 30's across all of the Blue Hill Peninsula...

Look for a partly cloudy and not so cold night tonight... lows falling back to the mid 20's...

Cloudy and continued mild for Wednesday... Highs in the upper 30's to lower 40's...

Cloudy conditions will continue Wednesday night with lows around 30... Cloudy on Thursday with highs in the 40's...

All this cloud cover is a result of a weak moisture starved warm front slowly pushing through Maine...

By Friday a storm will be approaching the Eastern Great Lakes with a shield of mostly rain pushing into New England... Models than began to diverge with ideas of forming a new storm somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic or Southern New England coast... If this storm forms... it may be able to keep enough cold air in to allow for some snow or mixed rain and snow for Maine on Friday... Still a very uncertain forecast for Friday... but I'm favoring a more liquid verses frozen track for now...

Mike Jezak

SNOW TOTALS LOWERED A BIT FOR SATURDAY... STORM TO PASS JUST TOO FAR OFF SHORE.... BITTER COLD TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...

2012-02-11T08:51:00.000-05:00

Saturday morning snowfall forecast.

East Surry - 4"-6"
Bangor area - 2"-4"
MDI area - 5"-7"
Millbridge to Cherryfield area - 6"- 8"
Machais to Eastport - 6"-10"

JEZAK

A SNOWY SATURDAY IS ON ITS WAY... FRIDGID FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOCAL GROUND BLIZZARDS... WINTER TO MAKE A RETURN!

2012-02-10T13:30:00.000-05:00

Snowfall map for Downeast Maine....

JEZAK

SATURDAY SNOWSTORM TO TAKE AIM AT DOWNEAST ... DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD AND WIND...

2012-02-09T17:22:00.000-05:00

Well one more mild day here at East Surry... Temperatures today reached 40 degrees after a morning low of 18... We continue to hold on to a very small and crusty snow pack of 1" here at the station but the high ground of our woods have about 2-3" of snow and ice...

Friday will be one more mild and mostly sunny day... After morning lows reach the lower 20's look for sunshine and a SW wind to help push temperatures back to near 40 degrees once again...

All attention then shifts to a powerful Arctic cold front that is plowing Southeastward out of central Canada... This front really means business as it will deliver a significant Arctic air mass to Maine this weekend...

As the front approaches the East coast on Saturday morning it will likely spin up a strong Nor'Easter... Now where and when this storm develops and moves is key to our Saturday forecast... Right now it looks like the storm will be close enough to provide Downeast Maine with a moderate snowstorm on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night... The snow will be light and fluffy so that too will play into the forecast...

The latest model data from the GFS for coastal Hancock County....

Time                Precip Liquid               Snowfall                temp
7PM SAT     0.20" - 0.33"                  2" - 3.3"                28

7AM SUN    0.20" - 0.43"                4"    - 8"                15

Storm totals     0.40" - 0.76"             6" - 11.3"

The cold temperatures means that we will not have to play around with a rain / snow line and gusty NE winds will likely cause considerable blowing and drifting of the snow....

I would call for a general 4-8" snowfall for the East Surry area but I could see how the models lean to higher amounts with a further westward track of the storm...

Snow will likely break out by mid-morning Saturday then become moderate to heavy by Saturday afternoon... The snow should end by early Sunday morning...

I'll have more on Friday...

Mike Jezak

COLD FRONTS TO BRING INCREASING ARCTIC CHILL TO DOWNEAST THIS WEEK... VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SAT NIGHT... MODELS OFF ON NEXT WEEKS STORMS.

2012-02-07T14:34:00.001-05:00

Well here we are on the 7th of February with broken snow pack of 1" and temperatures flirting with 40 degrees... Solar Winter has ended (as of Feb 5) so now we are in the period of fastest increase of day length, heading for the Equinox (MAR 20)

Winter has certainly been hard to find this year and Downeast Maine looks rather bleak with out a fresh cover of snow... The ground is defiantly frozen solid with frost depths around 15"... That is really deep and may have implications for a very delayed spring for Downeast Maine...

Moisture starved cold fronts will deliver increasingly colder air to Maine for the rest of this week... So don't get too use to the recent 40 degree weather... The first front is arriving this afternoon... a few widely scattered snow flurries may accompany the front (at most) then a clear breezy and cold night is expected with lows going to near zero by Wednesday morning...

A sunny cold winters day for Wednesday... Highs only in the 20's with breezy winds from the North at 15-20mph... Look for chills in the single digits and teens...

Sunny but moderating temperatures expected by Thursday as winds turn to the SW... Highs in the 30's...

Sunny early Friday then becoming partly sunny as another cold front approaches later in the day... Highs in the 30's...

Clear and very cold for this weekend... Arctic High builds in on a dry NW flow... The only fly in the ointment would be if a coastal storm can develop off the Southern New England coast Saturday night... Most models say NO or if it does form its too far out to sea... Only one of our long range models is depicting this storm to develop rapidly and produce significant snow for Eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes... This is a long shot at this point but I'll keep watching it for what its worth...

JEZAK

QUIET AND DRY THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS OF WINTER CHILL... MODELS PAINT BIG STORM CHANCES FOR FEB 17 AND 22...

2012-02-06T12:45:00.000-05:00

As the globe continues to battle a harsh winter... Storms of snow and bitter cold blasts parts of Northern Europe and snow buries Japan... Winter continues to avoid much of the United States... Aside from the recent big blizzard that dumped nearly a foot of snow on parts of CO and MO... Warmth has ruled...

Here in Downeast Maine, while we have not been significantly mild as of recent days... A cold and very dry winter pattern has taken hold... ON the ground only an 1 or 2 of crusty snow and ice... but sunny blustery days and cold clear nights have been the rule...

This week looks to be no different... Look for the stretch of sunny days and bouts of seasonable winter chill to dominate into the up coming weekend... With the current boring weather pattern... I'll spend the next few days looking at the storm potential for next week and beyond...

I do think that pattern will tend more snowy as we head into mid and late February... The models continue to hint at it even tho we don't seem to get all conditions favorable for big snow... As of today... the two "big" storm events look to be on FEB 17 (from a developing and quick moving Nor'Easter at will brush eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes) and from a potential powerhouse storm around FEB 22nd.

Early look at the 2 storms...

FEB 17th storm - Low pressure develops off the mid-Atlantic and very quickly develops into a moderate snowstorm as it passes SE of Cape Cod and SE of Nova Scotia... This track will put the heaviest snowfall over Eastern and Downeast Maine with only light amounts for northern Maine... The really big snows would fall across Nova Scotia... New Brunswick and Newfoundland...

FEB 22nd storm - Low pressure develops off NJ coast then becomes a powerhouse major storm south of RI / MA coast... This storm then pulls into the southern Gulf of Maine... On this track a crippling snowstorm for much of Southern New England, Coastal NH and maybe southern Maine... with a moderate snow storm for Downeast... Again not much for northern Maine...

That's the latest model tracks... and I sure we will see them change about 100 times before we get to the storm!

Mike Jezak

HAPPY NATIONAL WEATHER OBSERVER'S DAY

2012-02-05T13:15:00.000-05:00

Sunday February 5 is National Weather Observer's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, a Boston physician and one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774. He took the first balloon weather observation over London in 1784. He carried a thermometer, a barometer, and a hygrometer to the height of 9,000 feet. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation.

John Jeffries, an American physician, flew across the English Channel with Frenchman Jean Blanchard.

Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe.

The men and women at your local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office gather the raw weather data, analyze the data, and study numerical computer models in order to issue the weather and river forecasts and warnings to protect life and property. Specialized marine and aviation forecasts help enhance the Nation’s economy. Spot forecasts help firefighters control wildfires, and emergency management officials contain hazardous chemical spills. Extensive climate records help engineers, architects, researchers, insurance companies, and utilities.

The primary mission of the NWS is to provide the American public with the best possible warning service in an effort to save lives and protect property. Recent severe weather statistics show that we continue to improve our capability to warn the public of impending hazardous weather.
But the NWS couldn't accomplish its mission without a diverse group of partners helping in the process.
Nationwide, more than 11,000 volunteer Cooperative Observers take regular measurements of temperature, precipitation and other data, which is used by forecasters and climatologists. Nearly 300,000 volunteer storm spotters are trained by the NWS to provide visual reports of severe weather conditions to forecast offices and local emergency management officials. Volunteer amateur radio operators provide critical emergency communications during severe weather.

Most of the colorful weather graphics seen on television, in newspapers, and on web pages come from another member of the America's weather team. Commercial weather companies enhance the presentation of the NWS data and information for their clients in the media and in many weather-sensitive industries. They also provide customized forecasts and services for clients.

Television weathercasters are the most visible members of the America's weather team. They are the trusted faces many people turn to for weather information. The NWS depends on TV weathercasters to relay its official watches and warnings for hazardous weather to the public.
And finally, let's not forget the K-12 science teachers, and the professors of atmospheric sciences at colleges and universities who guide and encourage students. Research meteorologists, programmers and engineers at universities and national research centers develop new forecast techniques, and the hardware and software to get the job done.
On National Weather Observer's Day, the NWS would like to thank all of the volunteers, and our partners in television, commercial, and research weather services. Thank you!

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP EAST VERY WARM THROUGH FEB... BUT MID-MONTH BIG SNOW EVENT MAY BURY DOWNEAST...

2012-02-03T12:46:00.000-05:00

After an icy mid-week... Our current weather pattern has turned dry and cold... Overnight temperatures fell to 12 degrees here in East Surry this morning and I'm expecting that our afternoon highs will only reach the mid to upper 20's... Look for a partly to mostly cloudy afternoon with some scattered snow flurries around along with a gusty NW wind to 20mph at times..

Partly cloudy early tonight then clearing... lows around 5 to 10 above...

Mostly sunny and cold on Saturday with highs in the mid 20's...

High pressure will dominate the weather for Maine for the next several days... so expect varying amounts of sunshine each day with temperatures near seasonable... 20's to near 30 by day and in the single numbers to teens at night...

I still think a significant storm... or perhaps a series of storms will ride up the Eastern Seaboard during the week of FEB 12-18... These storms will have great potential of producing significant snowfall for Downeast Maine... So get ready for a very snowy mid-Feb!!!

Mike Jezak

A LOOK BACK AT JANUARY 2012... WILD TEMP SWINGS... DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL SNOW AND LOTS OF ICE.

2012-02-03T08:41:00.000-05:00

COLDER TODAY... LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY... SNOW TO MIX TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES BUT NO BIG SNOW OR COLD...

2012-01-30T13:11:00.000-05:00

A weak area of low pressure combined with an Arctic cold front sparked off a period of light snow across Hancock county around 8:30 - 10:30 this morning... The squall put down around a quarter to a half inch of snow and made for some brief icy spots on area roads...

Cold air is now in progress of building into to Maine for the rest of the afternoon... Look for temperatures to hover in the mid 30's then fall to the upper 20's by evening with WNW winds at 15-25mph...

Clear and cold tonight.. Lows in the teens with some single numbers in the usual cold spots... Winds diminish late at night.

Any brief morning sunshine on Tuesday will fade behind increasing clouds... Light snow will break out as a warm front begins to move into SW Maine... It will be cold with temperatures only in the 20's.. Snowfall up to 1" possible by evening...

Tuesday night... Snow likely... temperatures rising to near freezing late at night with developing east winds... Snowfall of 1-3" possible lows in the 20's early...

Morning snow and mix on Wednesday, then mixed sleet, freezing rain and rain Wednesday afternoon... Highs in the upper 30's... Snowfall up to 1" possible early... This would give a total Tuesday to Wednesday snowfall of 2" - 5" for the event..with less for the immediate coast...

Here is the latest snow cover map for Hancock County from mid-day Monday 30 JAN 2012.

JEZAK

NOT TOO COLD BUT WINDY FOR SUNDAY... COLDER AIR RETUNRS FOR MONDAY... BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL INTO MID WEEK... SNOW CHANCES FOR WED AND FRI...

2012-01-29T09:12:00.002-05:00

A modified cold air mass has spread across much of Northern New England behind our Friday snow and rain storm... This has left much of Downeast Maine with above normal temperatures on Saturday and Saturday night... A weak disturbance will pass through south Quebec late today and may spread some increased cloud cover across Downeast areas this afternoon... Winds will be the big story today with gusts to 35mph possible.. Highs will be in the mid 30's.

Monday looks to be partly sunny and colder as high pressure from Canada quickly build in behind the departing low... Look for highs in the upper 20's to near 30.

Another weak system will slide across Maine on Tuesday sparking off a round of snow showers... The snow showers may mix with rain along the immediate Downeast Coast... mostly south of Surry.

Our next storm will arrive by late Tuesday night into Wednesday in the form of low pressure approaching from the west... Models still do not have a good handle on this storm... It appears to be weak... so I'm not expecting significant snowfall or rain... but early estimations would be for a 1-2" snow followed by some mix precip... all depending on the storm track...

Models still very murky for the end of the week... EURO has a significant snowstorm pounding Maine on Friday as strong low pressure moves across the Gulf of ME... GFS has a storm passing well off shore maybe grazing the coast with some snow or flurries... Its going to be a watcher for sure....

Mike Jezak

STORM MOVING THROUGH GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.... PARTLY SUNNY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND... BIG STORM CHANCES FOR FEBRUARY...

2012-01-27T16:24:00.001-05:00

Our current snowstorm is now racing across the Gulf of Maine towards central Nova Scotia this Friday afternoon... Milder air has pushed into most of Hancock county, changing the snow... sleet and freezing rain to all rain. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40's at many of the offshore islands to the mid 30's across the interior...

Here in East Surry 3.3" of snow and sleet accumulated before the change over to rain around 10:30AM this morning... melted precip is now pushing 0.90" for the storm... We still have maintained around 2" snow cover as of 4PM and much of the rain has been absorbed into that pack... We still have lots of big puddles standing on area roads and driveways.. and even across our backyard (since the ground is frozen to almost 20" deep)... So I do think that we will see a refreeze later tonight with significant ice... IF TRAVELING AROUND HANCOCK COUNTY LATER TONIGHT WATCH OUT FOR VERY ICY CONDITIONS!

HERE IS A MAP WITH THE CURRENT SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTY... What a difference a day can make... immediate coast still void of snow...

After a really icy start to our Saturday... look for a partly sunny day with temperatures rising into the mid 30's...

Partly cloudy conditions will continue into Sunday with temperatures in the 30's by day and 20's overnight...

Looking ahead our next big storm may arrive towards the end of next week (in the FEB 2-3 time frame) the models have been hinting at the prospects of a very stormy and cold FEB... and I do think we may be looking at a significant snowstorm around Groundhog Day... Is our snow drought over? I think February may play make-up really quickly and we may be in-store for some really big snows... Stay tuned!

JEZAK

SNOWFALL MAP FOR FRIDAY MORNING STORM

2012-01-26T20:11:00.000-05:00

Here is my snowfall forecast for Friday morning... Ice and sleet could be significant... I'm expecting this to be a moderate impact storm with significant travel impacts likely from 5-11AM Friday morning...

SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ALL IN THE CARDS FOR A MESSY FRIDAY MORNING... RAIN BY AFTERNOON... CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE WEEKEND.

2012-01-26T12:45:00.000-05:00

Well our next storm system is taking shape today across the lower Tennessee River Valley... The system has been responsible for severe weather over the deep south and a swath of snow and ice across the upper mid-west and Great Lakes... The storm will advance eastward towards New England this afternoon.

Look for high pressure to continue to hold on here in Maine into the afternoon... skies will be sunny and temperatures will be in the lower 30's. A gusty NW wind will make for wind chills in the 20's at times...
Clouds will thicken up by evening with snow arriving sometime between 11PM - 2AM... The atmosphere is quite dry so it may take an hour or so for the snow to be able to make it to the ground... Look for snow to be falling by daybreak for most of the area with 2-3" likely...

Friday morning will feature snow changing and mixing with sleet and freezing rain... look for an additional 1-2" of snow before the change over... Up to 0.1" of ice is possible (from freezing rain)... Rain should overspread the area by 10AM for the far southern part of the Blue Hill Peninsula to around noon or 1PM for the Ellsworth area... Highs will range from near 40 at the immediate shore to the 30's elsewhere...

The storm will pull away by Friday evening with rain ending... perhaps as a bit of freezing rain or freezing drizzle... Lows Friday night will be in the 20's... Watch out for slipper travel as wet roads re-freeze!

Partly sunny and pleasant on Saturday with a high around freezing.

So here is a map of our current snow cover as of 11AM Thursday AM...

Much of the area remains snow-free with the "jackpot" being unincorporated areas NE of Ellsworth with 2-4" of snow sill on the ground... What a difference from a year ago when we had 18-24" of snow on the ground!

Jezak

FAST MOVING STORM TO DELIVER SOME SNOW AND MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... CLEARING FOR SATURDAY...

2012-01-25T13:58:00.000-05:00

Today was a transition day... cooler air from Canada is slowly oozing back into Maine, behind our recent warm spell... Skies remained mostly cloudy for much of the day on Wednesday with temperatures mostly in the upper 30's.

Skies will be cleaning out tonight... Lows will fall back into the teens, since we are lacking any snow cover and the wind will be gusty from the NW.

Thursday will be a sunny day... Look for temperatures to be in the upper 20's to near 30.

Our next storm will be developing in the Ohio valley and quickly racing eastward to central New York by Thursday evening... Snow will spread across Northern New England Thursday evening... reaching SW Maine by 9PM and Downeast Maine after midnight... Now here comes the interesting part of the forecast... Our computer models are not in agreement with a track for this storm... Like last Friday the storm will be moving rather quickly so I'm not going to be tricked by the over zealous precip. out put on the GFS... Still lots of uncertainties as to the exact track and if a rain/snow line forms and where it forms...

Needless to say... the snow / sleet / mix / rain will be coming to an end by Friday afternoon... with clearing by Friday night... Very early snowfall estimates would be 1-3" coast with 3-5" inland... but check back during the day on Thursday for updates...

Have a great Wednesday!
Mike Jezak

DIMINISHED SNOW PACK MAKES IT FEEL MORE LIKE APRIL RATHER THAN LATE JANUARY... COLDER BY THURSDAY...

2012-01-24T12:34:00.000-05:00

A warm rainstorm has brought 0.47" of rain to East Surry over the past 24hrs... The mild temperatures have resulted in the melting of our snow pack... We officially have 1" of snow and ice on the ground here at the station and 2-3" in our woods. The ground remains frozen to almost 20" so we have lots of standing water across the lawns... This water will likely freeze over the next several days... In some places the ice will be several inches thick.

Temperatures have warmed to the upper 40's across all of Hancock County this morning, with near record warmth reaching all the way up to far northern Maine.

Here is the latest snow depth map for Hancock County... Notice that the immediate coast has lost its snow cover with the 1" depth stretching from near Bucksport to Surry and points north.

Skies should clear out by this evening with temperatures falling back to the upper 20's overnight. Sky watchers may want to take notice for the possibility of the Aurora being visible tonight... This may be the result of a significant CME that was emitted by the sun and hit into the earth's ionosphere earlier this morning...

Sunny and still mild on Wednesday, but much cooler than today... Highs in the mid 30's... Much colder Wednesday night with temperatures falling back to near 10 degrees by Thursday morning... (the wild roller coaster of temperature swings continue!). Sunny and colder on Thursday with a high in the upper 20's...

Our next storm system arrives by Thursday night in the form of some light snow... The snow will likely last into Friday morning... Right now I'm not expecting this to be a big storm... probably putting down 1-2" of snow... Clearing and cold for Saturday with temperatures in the 20's... By Sunday our long range models begin to diverge with several possible storm tracks and scenarios... so maybe more snow / rain by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night...

Have a great Tuesday!

Mike Jezak

STORM RACING TO THE GREAT LAKES.... PULLING WARMTH UP THE EAST COAST... RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MAINE THIE EVENING...

2012-01-23T11:11:00.000-05:00

After a cold weekend that featured a -4 degree temperature Sunday morning... a storm system to our west will pull warm air into New England for the start of this week... This storm is expected to bring 0.5" to 0.75" of rain to much of Downeast Maine this evening into Tuesday morning...

With a melting snow pack and ground frozen to nearly 20" I'm thinking we may see some flooding by Tuesday morning... Mild air will last for much of Tuesday with temperatures well into the 40's... Colder (but still above normal) air will flow back into Maine by Wednesday... by then new energy will be coming together across the Ohio Valley. This system will move towards Maine by late Thursday night... pushing snow or rain into Downeast. Still too early to tell if this will be a snowstorm for our area... but what this system will do is open the gates for a return to seasonably to slightly below normal cold to return by the weekend... Until then enjoy the January thaw!

Mike Jezak

SNOWSTORM PULLING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... LIGHT SNOW ENDS ON DOWNEAST COAST...SUNNY AND COLD SUNDAY...

2012-01-21T20:10:00.000-05:00

A significant snowstorm that dumped 8-12" of snow across coastal Rhode Island and Southeastern Mass today is now pulling into the North Atlantic.... Here in Downeast Maine we remained on the northern fringe of this storm... Light snow fell most of the day here in East Surry with 0.5" of snow falling at the station...

Skies will clear out this evening and it will be cold. Lows around zero.

A sunny and cold Sunday... Temperatures will rebound to the low 20's...

The upcoming work week will feature yet another storm... but this time the storm will be taking a western track through the Eastern Great Lakes.... On this track much warmer air will infiltrate all of New England, yielding a mostly rain event... Look for rain and mixed freezing rain to overspread Downeast Maine Monday afternoon... rain will likely last into Tuesday morning with temperatures in the 40's through the period... Rainfall of up to 1" is possible, and when combined with snow melt and frozen ground... we may be seeing some flooding by Tuesday morning...

Stay tuned for more on this storm...

Mike Jezak

SNOWSTORM RACING AWAY FROM MAINE THIS MORNING... SUNNY AND COLD BY NOON... COLD SATURDAY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW BY SAT AFTERNOON...

2012-01-20T09:12:00.001-05:00

Our current storm system is rapidly pulling away from the Downeast coast as of 9AM this Friday morning... Temperatures have warmed to near 32 degrees along coastal Hancock County as the storm center passed, now temperatures are falling back into the low 30's with winds shifting to the west...

The storm produced a heavy burst of 3" - 5" snowfall across the Blue Hill Peninsula... Here in East Surry we picked up 3.7" of new snow... (most of that fell in a 1 1/2 hr period from 6:30-8AM this morning)..

My forecast did underestimate the quick movement of this system.... hence the lower snowfalls...

Look for clearing and colder temps this afternoon. WNW winds increasing to 15-25mph with some blowing and drifting of the fresh snow.

Clear and cold tonight... Lows around zero...

Mostly cloudy on Saturday with light snow developing during the afternoon as a storm passes off the mid-Atlantic coast... As of now it looks like this storm will be just too far south of Maine to deliver us a significant snowfall... I think a 1-2" snowfall is possible Saturday evening... mostly along the coast as the storm pulls into the far southern Gulf of Maine...

Have a great Friday!
Mike Jezak

A SNOWY FRIDAY MORNING THEN A COLD SATURDAY TO FOLLOW... MORE LIGHT SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

2012-01-19T17:09:00.000-05:00

So here is the latest data from the GFS model on tonight's snow event...

Time                     QPF                              Snowfall
7AM FRI        0.06" - 0.15"                   0.9" - 2.3"
1PM FRI         0.11" - 0.20"                  1.7" - 3.0"

Storm total: 0.17" - 0.35"                  2.6" - 5.3"

This has been a downward trend in available moisture with the storm... I do think this system will get its act together once it get into the Gulf of Maine... but I am concerned about the fast movement of the storm... not allowing significant snow to fall... So I'm lowering my forecast totals to 4-6" for our area...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY continues for Hancock County from 3AM Friday morning until 1PM...

AN EARLY LOOK AT THE MODEL DATA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY MORNING SNOW EVENT...

2012-01-18T22:41:00.000-05:00

0Z model run of the GFS

Time                        QPF                            SNOWFALL
7P THURS -
7A FRI                   0.23"                              3"- 4"

7A FRI -
7P FRI                 0.09" - 0.23"                     2"-3"

Storm total:         0.32" - 0.46"                   5" - 7"

I think this will be a solid 5-7" snow event for most of the Blue Hill Peninsula and MDI region... Snow should overspread the Downeast area by 1-2AM Friday morning with the heaviest snow band to set up from 5AM - 8AM Friday morning then move east (into Washington county) by 9-10AM... Snow falls at the rate of 1-2" per hour during this time... Snow should have a high fluff factor so I think we can squeeze out a good 6-7" at most locations... I will not stray from the models on this one since we have almost 100% consensus with all 3 NWS models and good run to run consistency... How often do I get to say that!

JEZAK

SUNNY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR MOVING INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON

2012-01-18T14:10:00.000-05:00

Temperatures continue to fall into the upper 20's this afternoon on gusty WNW winds... As of mid afternoon winds have gusted to 32mph here at the station in East Surry.... A WIND ADVISORY remains in effect until 6PM for all of Eastern and Northern Maine.

PK wind gusts from around the region...

Bar Harbor - 42mph
Brooklin - 42mph
Sedgwick - 40mph
East Surry - 32mph
Trenton - 30mph
Blue Hill consolidated: 29mph

JEZAK

A WINDY WEDNESDAY... SUNNY COLD THURSDAY THEN A SNOWY FRIDAY...

2012-01-18T10:23:00.000-05:00

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MAINE UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING....

A sunny and windy Wednesday is unfolding across Downeast Maine this morning... Temperatures that were once in the low 40's (around 1AM this morning) have settled back into the upper 30's this morning... Last night brought sleet... snow ... freezing rain and plain rain to our area... This combination of precip has made for some really slippery roads and walkways around the area...

Today will see sunny skies with increasing west winds... Look for gusts to reach 40mph later this morning into the afternoon... Temperatures in the upper 30's will fall to the upper 20's this afternoon as cold high pressure begins to build in...

Clear... breezy and very cold tonight... Lows falling off to around 5 degrees... NW winds will continue at 15-25mph... creating wind chills to -20 degrees at times.

Sunny and seasonably cold on Thursday. Highs 15-17 degrees... diminishing winds.

Our next storm system will be a arriving on Thursday evening in the form of an Alberta Clipper... This system will race across New England Thursday night... then into the Gulf of Maine on Friday... The storm will spread snow across all of Northern New England.... With a fast moving system and low moisture values I'm thinking a general 4-6" of snow will fall by Friday afternoon... This snow will be very dry and fluffy so we may squeeze out a bit higher yield of snow from the limited moisture...

Cold and active weather will continue into the weekend with more snow chances on Saturday.... Highs in the 20's and lows in the teens.

Jezak

LIGHT SNOW...SLEET...FZ RAIN TODAY... BITTER COLD RETURNS BY WED NIGHT... LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

2012-01-17T10:00:00.000-05:00

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ****

The roller coaster of wild temperature swings continue... After a Arctic cold weekend, a strong Southwesterly flow pushed temperatures to the mid 30's around midnight last night... making for a 34 degree temperature rise in about 16 hours!

Now a weak warm front is slowly lifting northward along the Maine coast this morning, creating periods of mostly light snow across the Downeast coast. Look for light snow to tapper off by mid-day... temperatures will be around freezing through noontime.

More organized precipitation will arrive later this afternoon in association to a strong Arctic front...poised to bring a return of bitter cold air... Look for a mix of snow...sleet... freezing rain and rain to develop around 5-6pm this evening and last into Wednesday morning... Watch out for some slick spots on area roads.

On Wednesday a strong cold front will be moving off the Maine coast by morning... with clearing skies and a strong west wind... temperatures will fall from the mid 30's during the morning to the 20's by evening...Winds may gust over 40 mph at times Wednesday...

Cold and clear Wednesday night... Lows fall back to around zero with gusty NW winds to 25mph... Wind chills near -20 at times.

Sunny and cold Thursday... Highs int he upper teens.

Our next weak system will arrive by late Thursday night in the form of a clipper... This system will swing a band of snow into our area after midnight Thursday lasting into mid-day Friday... as of now a general 2-4" snowfall is likely with this system...

Cold and sunny weather returns for Saturday with highs in the 20's...

Jezak

ANOTHER ZERO DEGREE MORNING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE....

2012-01-16T09:34:00.000-05:00

Here are the high temperatures from Sunday...

East Surry: 11 Wind Chill: -23
Trenton: 10
Brooklin: 11
Sedgwick: 9
Bar Harbor: 11
Stonington: 12
Southwest Harbor 12

Monday morning lows

East Surry: 0
Trenton: 1
Sedgwick: 2
Blue Hill: 1
Brooklin: 3
Stonington: 6
Bar Harbor: 5
Swouthwest Harbor: 3

JEZAK

COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON... WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...

2012-01-15T09:10:00.000-05:00

A cold Sunday morning here in East Surry. Our morning low temperature was -5 degrees. Gusty NW winds added to the chill overnight with wind chills reaching -21 at one point. Look for a sunny and cold day today with a high of around 10 to 12 degrees. Winds will continue active from the NW at 15-20mph today so wind chills will be -5 to -10 all day... Bundle up if your going to be outside for any length of time!

This mornings Low Temperatures form around the region;

East Surry .... -5 Chiil -21
McFarland Hill, Bar Harbor .... -5
Blue Hill Consolidated, Blue Hill .... -3
Sedgwick ... -3
Brooklin ... -2
Trenton ... -2
Cherryfield ... -2
Southwest Harbor ... 1

Mike Jezak

MAP OF SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND HANCOCK COUNTY.

2012-01-13T11:30:00.000-05:00

JEZAK

FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS FRIDAY MORNING.... TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS... ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES WITH COLD BLAST THIS EVE...

2012-01-13T08:45:00.000-05:00

Cold temperatures and abundant low level moisture has set the stage for an extended freezing rain event across all of eastern and northern Maine this Friday morning... Temperatures continue to hold in the mid to upper 20's across Hancock County with light fog and mist freezing on surfaces... A powerful storm and Arctic cold front is currently racing eastward out of the Eastern Great Lakes this morning... The front will spark off bands of heavy rain and snow squalls this afternoon and evening as it enters into Maine... Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30's ahead of the front by mid-day then fall sharply with the fronts arrival later tonight...

Additional ice accumulation of a glaze to 0.1" is possible through noon... And up to 1" of new snow may fall this evening with the cold front...

A significant bitter Arctic air mass will rush into Maine on Saturday... Temperatures will fall all day Saturday (from the 20's during the morning to near 0 by Saturday evening). Gusty NW winds will gust over 40mph at times creating wind chills to near -25 degrees at times...

Sunday looks to be our coldest day... After morning lows near -10 degrees the temperatures will only rise to around 8 or 9 degrees during the day... Again wind chills will be near -25 degrees at times...

Temperatures will moderate by Monday with highs returning to seasonable levels in the 20's...

Have a great Friday!
Mike Jezak

SNOWSTORM CONTINUES ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE... CHANCES OF A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN LOOKING SLIM AS COLD AIR IS HOLDING TOUGH OVER HANCOCK COUNTY...

2012-01-12T16:36:00.002-05:00

As of 4PM moderate snow continues to fall here in East Surry... Snow has accumulated to 4.5" here at the station... Look for snow to continue into the evening with an additional 2-3" likely bringing the storm total to 6-8" across the Surry area... and 5-6" at Blue Hill where some sleet may mix in at the end...

Temperatures continue to hold in the upper 20's with gusty ENE winds to 15mph.

A powerful upper level storm will swing thorugh Maine during Friday bringing a new batch of freezing rain... sleet and snow to the area... As of now looking liek an additional 1-3" of snow to fall on Friday... The real big story for Friday will be the wind... Winds may gust over 50mph in strong convective cells that may even produce some thunder and lightning buring the afternoon... This will need to be watched as the strong winds may cause damage and brief white out conditions with hvy snow... sleet and freezing rain...

Mike Jezak

SNOW ARRIVING IN AUGUSTA TO BELFAST AS OF MID MORNING... TO ARRIVE IN DOWNEAST BY NOON... HEAVY AFTERNOON SNOW AND ICE LIKELY...

2012-01-12T10:11:00.001-05:00

Winter Weather Advisories continue for the rest of the day as the leading edge of our storm continues to inch towards Hancock County... As of mid-morning the snow was falling from a line of Augusta to Belfast and is expected to arrive in Bucksport by 11AM... Blue Hill 11:45AM... Bar Harbor 12:30PM...

Snow will quickly pick up in intensity with 1-2" per hour snowfall likely through the afternoon... The snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain by evening with up to 0.25" of ice accumulations... The ice will weigh down trees and power lines and with increasing East winds... look for scattered poor outages to develop by evening... This storm will have a high impact on the afternoon commute..

Overall snowfall totals of 3-5" are expected across our area with isolated 6" amounts...

Mike Jezak

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAPS

2012-01-11T17:45:00.003-05:00

SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR A SLOPPY THURSDAY... BITTER COLD ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND...

2012-01-11T11:26:00.000-05:00

Here is the latest 12Z model run for coastal Hancock County...

Time               Liquid                     Snowfall

1AM-7AM       T                            T
7AM-1PM     0.10" - 0.25"           1"- 2"
1PM-7PM     0.70" - 0.90"           6" - 8"
7PM-1AM    0.10" - 0.25"            1" - 2"

Storm total      0.90" - 1.40"         8" - 12"

My forecast 5"-8" across the Surry - Blue Hill Areas...

Pinpoint accumulations

East Surry - 5.7" with up to 0.1" ice
Surry Village - 4"-5" with up to 0.1" ice
Blue Hill Village - 4"-5" with up to 0.1" ice
Blue Hill (elevation above 250') - 6"-9" with up to 0.1" ice

Snow to overspread the area from 9-10AM Thursday... Heaviest snow arrives 1-6PM Thursday... Snow mixes with sleet and freezing rain by 6-9PM.

Mike Jezak

MODEL OUTPUT FOR THURSDAYS STORM... MY FIRST GUESS

2012-01-10T14:10:00.000-05:00

Using this mornings 12Z data... Here is a snowfall timeline for Thursdays storm

Date         Time           Liquid       Snowfall
1/12   1AM - 7AM          T               T
1/12   7AM - 1PM        0.50"           3"-5"
1/12   1PM - 7PM   0.50" - 0.75"     4"-6"
1/12   7PM - 1AM  0.10" - 0.25"      0.5" - 1.5"

Storm totals:        1.10" - 1.50"     7.5" - 12.5"

This does not take into account for snow compaction or some sleet and FZRA mixing in... So I'm still going to hold on to my 5"-9" forecast for the Surry area...

Mike Jezak

MODELS FLIP-FLOP ON THURSDAYS STORM... MODERATE SNOW STORM NOW LOOKING LIKELY FOR DOWNEAST MAINE ON THURSDAY....

2012-01-10T11:37:00.000-05:00

The wild flip-flop winter of 2012 continues... This morning we were dealt some slippery travel from a brief period of freezing rain the result of warm air being forced into Downeast Maine ahead of a strong Arctic cold front. Temperatures warmed from the mid 20's to mid 30's in a matter of about an hour but the onset of rain did cause some glazing on untreated surfaces around 9AM this morning... Now the warm air is here and temperatures are in the mid 30's with SW winds... Look for a cloudy mid-day and afternoon with still a chance of a passing rain or snow shower. The cold front will sweep across the state this afternoon and evening bringing clearing skies, sharply colder temps and gusty NW winds.

Tonight we will see decreasing clouds, windy and colder conditions. Low temperatures will fall to around 10 by morning.

Wednesday will be Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. Highs will struggle to reach 20. NW winds will average 15-25mph so chills will be near zero for most of the day.

Looking ahead... the big weather story comes on Thursday as low pressure forms along the Mid-Atlantic coast then moves Northeastward to a position off Cape Cod by Thursday afternoon... On this more southern track... I expect a mostly snow event with mix chances only for the immediate coast... I think WINTER STORM WATCHES will likely be hoisted by this evening for Central and Downeast Maine... This storm may bring 5-8" of snow to our area on Thursday... Timing is still uncertain but, by mid-day Thursday into Thursday evening is looking to bring the worst of the snow and wind... Snow may fall at the rate of 1" per hour for a time Thursday afternoon...

Stay tuned for more information as the data continues to pour in...

Mike Jezak

WINTER TO MAKE SLOW RETURN THIS WEEK.... THE WRATH OF WINTER STILL MAY CAUSE SOME TROUBLES BY LATE JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY...

2012-01-09T12:46:00.000-05:00

A seasonably cold and sunny Monday morning here in East Surry. Our morning low was 13 degrees with a beautiful sunrise...

Today is Plow Monday... The day when workers would return to their jobs after the Christmastide celebrations...

Look for a sunny winters day across all of Downeast Maine... Temperatures will be in the upper 20's to near 30 degrees. Sparkling sunshine may fade behind some clouds this afternoon as a weak disturbance approaches the Great Lakes by afternoon...

Clear and cool tonight with a low in the upper teens. Look for more clouds than sun on Tuesday as a weak and mostly moisture starved disturbance crosses the state... Highs will be in the mid to upper 30's... There is a chance of some widely scattered snow showers developing Tuesday afternoon.

Back to partly cloudy skies and more seasonable temperatures on Wednesday... Highs in the upper 20's...

Our next storm system will arrive by early Thursday morning... This looks to be a very complex system and our computer models still do not have a very good handle on the amount of cold air that will be available for the storm to work with... So at this early stage I'm thinking snow for the Maine mountains into the Crown of Maine (3-5")... Snow to mix to ice for central areas of Maine (to include Baxter State Park) 2-3" then up to 0.3" ice... Snow to mix to rain for Downeast with 1-2" snow to 0.1" ice to all rain especially near the coast. This will all play out during the day on Thursday... then the storm will slide east of our area and a strong Arctic cold front will swing through Maine by late Friday ushering in very cold air for the upcoming weekend...

That is how it is looking as of now... Stay tuned for updates throughout the week!

Mike Jezak

SOME SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MILD ON SATURDAY THEN COLD RETURNS FOR SUNDAY... NEXT WEEK LOOKS COLD WITH A STORM CHANCE BY THE 12TH

2012-01-06T10:27:00.000-05:00

A cloudy and cold morning here in East Surry. Our early morning low was 13 degrees before the clouds thickened up just prior to dawn.

On the weather map... a weak warm front and area of low pressure was draped across eastern New England. This feature was producing light snow from the mountains of New Hampshire eastward to much of southern and central Maine. This system will be sliding east today so I would expect light snow to develop across the Downeast areas by early afternoon... reaching the Canadian boarder (St. Stephen) by evening. The snow will be generally light so I'm not expecting more than 1-2" across our area... But that will be enough to cause some snow covered roads later this evening so watch out if you are traveling about. Highs today will be in the 20's

The snow will end later tonight and may even end as a brief period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle... Look for mostly cloudy skies overnight with a low actually warming to around freezing.

Partly sunny and mild on Saturday... so you don't have to move the snow... Mother Nature will take care of it... Look for a high around 38 degrees with SW winds shifting to NW later in the day as a moisture depleted cold front approaches...

Mostly clear breezy and colder Saturday night with a low in the mid 10's...

Sunny, breezy and back to the seasonably cold weather for Sunday with a high in the 20's...

Dry and typical cold winter weather is expected for much of early and mid next week. Our next storm chance will arrive by Wednesday night or Thursday in the form of a storm developing along the Eastern Seaboard. Latest model data suggests that the storm may have enough warm air with it to bring the chance of ice or rain for coastal areas and mostly snow for the far north and mountains... This looks to be the first significant weather event of 2012... so stay posted as the details will change as we get closer...

Happy Epiphany
Mike Jezak

WINTER COLD WILL YIELD TO WARMING TREND INTO EARLY WEEKEND... COLD AND MOSTLY DRY INTO MID NEXT WEEK...

2012-01-05T14:03:00.000-05:00

Conditions continue to moderate as the heart of the Arctic cold continues to slid eastward into Atlantic Canada today. As our current cold blast retreats a return flow of milder air is moving back into New England. Temperatures have already modified quiet a bit from yesterday... with temperatures in the lower 30's across much of Downeast Maine by early this afternoon.

With the mild air comes the increased cloud cover... I think we will remain mostly cloudy through this afternoon with a few very widely scattered snow showers about... Highs will range from the mid 30's at the shore to around 30 inland.

Skies will clear out later tonight as a new but weaker cold air mass arrives from southern Canada. This cold will give Northern New England a glancing blow with the heart of the cold remaining north across James Bay. Look for lows to fall back into the low 10's across the area.

Friday will start off sunny and cold... Look for afternoon clouds to increase a head of our next fast moving clipper system... Some snow showers may break out by afternoon... Look for a high in the 20's.

Cloudy with snow showers around early Friday night... May put down a quick inch of snow (at the most). then remaining cloudy overnight with temperatures rising into the low 30's overnight...

Saturday looks to be a partly sunny and milder day... Highs may top out near 40!... Sunny and colder for Sunday with temperatures near 30 by day and in the 10's to near 20 at night...

A generally dry pattern looks to hold into the start of next week... as a southern storm looks to pass too far south of New England to cause any problems here... Looking a head I still think our next chance of a significant weather event comes around January 12th... Models all agree on developing a rather healthy storm over the SEUS by then but this storm will be embedded in a pool of very mild air... I still think it will be more likely for rain or ice from this next big weather maker... so stay tuned...

I do think the cold will really start to build over the Northeast by mid-late January and I think by then we may actually see a significant pattern change to a much more exciting wintery looking pattern... But this change will take some time as the overall fast west east flow still wants to run the show and La Nina is still running the south Pacific...

Mike Jezak

WINTER COLD FOR MID-WEEK... MILDER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND... NO BIG STORMS IN SIGHT...

2012-01-04T11:25:00.000-05:00

A cold morning here in East Surry.... Our pre-dawn low was 4 degrees... combined with a gusty northwest wind, wind chills reached a minimum of -16 for a time this morning... As of late AM temperatures have warmed to around 12 degrees and a gusty North wind continues to make it feel like -5 degrees...

Look for a sunny and cold day today with highs only in the upper 10's. Partly cloudy tonight and a bit warmer than last night. Low around 10.

Thursday will feature more clouds than sun... Continued cold with highs in the upper 20's...

Looking ahead, a weak and moisture starved low and warm front will approach Maine later in the day on Friday. After a sunny and cold start to Friday (temps in the 10's) look for cloudy and cold afternoon with highs reaching the low 20's.

Light snow and snow showers will overspread Maine on Friday night. As of now I'm not too excited for anything too significant. Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are possible. The snow showers will linger into Saturday as temperatures warm to above freezing as we get under the influence of a South to Southwest wind. Once again the warmth will slosh back into Maine!

Colder air returns for later Saturday and Sunday as developing low pressure forms off the mid-Atlantic... In this fast (non-blocking) flow I really can't see how this storm can lift too far North towards New England... With that being said, I think we will be lucky if we can squeeze out some snow showers later Sunday and Sunday night... but probably not much more...

I'll have more on this storm over the next few days...

Happy Wednesday!
Mike Jezak

WARMTH IS KING.... COOLER TIMES AHEAD FOR DOWNEAST BUT WINTER CONTINUES A HARD FIGHT TO KEEP MUCH GROUND....

2012-01-03T10:58:00.001-05:00

Well here we are in 2012... Looks like early spring here in Downeast Maine with bare ground and record warm temperatures for the start of January... Colder air is slowly oozing into Maine this Tuesday morning... but it is really just typical winter cold... Considering all the warmth we have had over the past few weeks it will feel mighty cold... Tonight (Tuesday night) should be cold with lows falling into the low single numbers... I don't think we will get as cold as we did on Christmas Morning (with a low of -1). This cold is just not strong enough... It will be windy so I would think we might get some good wind hills (into the -10's to -20 if we are lucky)...

As for snow... still fighting fast moving split jet with no significant North Atlantic blocking. I'm hoping that this pattern may finally begin to break brown by late January or February to salvage some sort of snow season.... As of today our snowfall for the winter of 2011-2012 is at an even 21"... That is running about 2" shy of normal for January 3rd... This is mostly a result of the snowy October and November we had... no thanks to the miserably snowless December... I guess we can't complain since we manage to pick up 7.4" of snow during the December 23-25 period making for a winter wonderland for Christmas...

Here is a look back at the December 2011 weather summary and my yearly 2011 report...

Happy 2012 to all!

Click on the picture to make it full screen.

VERY ICY WEDNESDAY... CLEARING AND COOL FOR THURSDAY... LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY.... IN A FAST MOVING FLOW...

2011-12-21T12:53:00.000-05:00

After a very cold start to the day... with a morning low temperature of 8 degrees... light freezing drizzle and freezing rain began to overspread the region around 8AM this morning.This rain was the result of a developing coastal front that now bisects Hancock County... As of mid-day temperatures were in the upper 20's to low 30's across the upper Blue Hill Peninsula northwards with very dangerous icy conditions... south of this line temperatures were in the upper 30's to mid 40's with just plain rain falling...

Look for gradual warming temperatures thought the afternoon and the icy conditions will slowly begin to ease... Rain will continue into the evening... but I am still concerned about patchy areas of freezing rain lasting into the evening across interior Hancock and Washington counties... So if you are out traveling continue to use caution....

Thursday will be our transition day as mild air gets scoured out by developing NW winds... Temperatures will be in the upper 30's.

A storm will be forming south of New England on Friday then race eastward out into the southern Gulf of Maine by late Friday.... This system has the chance to spread a swath of light snow across Downeast Maine with accumulations of 1-3" across our area... This is our best chance for getting a white Christmas... Fair and seasonably cold weather returns for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day... as the once forecasted storm looks to develop and pass too far south of our region to do any harm other than possible adding some patchy clouds to the forecast for this weekend.

Have a great Wednesday and travel safely!
Mike Jezak

COLD AND WINDY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY... WARM-UP ON THE WAY FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TO RAIN... COLDER WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR CHRISTMAS...

2011-12-20T11:06:00.000-05:00

Wow... A wild roller coaster ride int he weather department as of late... Our frosty cold Monday morning yielded the seasons coldest temperature thus far of 5 degrees... that was followed by a nearly 35 degree warm-up by Monday afternoon as southerly winds gusted to near 35mph behind a warm front...

Overnight a cold front brought a new fresh supply of cold air back into Maine... Our high for today was recorded at midnight (37 degrees) but since then our temperatures have been falling. As of mid-day Tuesday temperatures were in the mid 20's with wind chills in the 10's... Bright sunny skies with an Arctic feel for this afternoon!

Clear and cold tonight with lows falling to around 10 above. Morning sunshine on Wednesday will fade behind increasing mid-day clouds... temperatures will again (like on Monday) quickly warm from the teens to lower 30's by mid-day as southeasterly winds develop. Light snow or rain will develop by afternoon and quickly change to all rain from Bangor on south to the coast. I'm not expecting and snow accumulation from this... and rainfall should be light with this fast moving system (generally less than 0.40"). This storm that will be affecting us on Wednesday is actually the big Mid-West blizzard that has buried much of CO to OK under tremendous amounts of snow and produced near hurricane force winds... Since we will be on the right side (warm sector) of the storm... Nearly all of New England will experience rain from it...

The rain will come to an end early on Thursday (perhaps as a touch of light snow)... then look for clearing skies and seasonably cold weather for Thursday... High in the 30's.

Now the interesting weather starts to develop by Friday... To our south a stalled out front will act as a sharp dividing line between the renewd Arctic cold over Northern New England to the warm moist air over the Mid-Atlantic region. This will set up a battle zone for several storms to form over the upcoming Christmas weekend... One such system is expected to pass harmlessly out to sea on Friday bringing only a chance of a few scattered snow showers or flurries. A new storm system is expected to form during the day on Saturday (Christmas Eve Day). This is the system that has the potential to pass into the Gulf of Maine and produce a snowstorm for Downeast Maine on Christmas Day and Christmas night... The one negative ingredient in this forecast is that the upper level pattern is really not conducive for significant storm development... so this storm will have some hurdles to overcome if it is to really get going... Another limiting factor in that we are in a very progressive (fast moving) weather pattern... so the storm will be of short duration so getting big snowfalls is probably not likely... Clearly its way to early to post any predicted snowfall accumulations but its at least something to watch in the days leading up to Christmas...

Happy Tuesday
Mike Jezak

COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON AT EAST SURRY....

2011-12-18T10:13:00.000-05:00

Cold High pressure continues to build out of southern Canada this Sunday morning... Our Low here at East Surry was 10 with a wind chill of -7... This marks the coldest morning so far for the winter season 2011-2012... Look for a sunny but cold day today... Highs will only manage to reach the mid 20's. Gusty north winds will average at 10-25mph driving wind chills to the single digits all day... and likely int he negative single digits again by evening...

Stay warm!

Mike Jezak

MY UPDATED WINTER 2012 FORECAST FOR JANUARY TO MARCH 2012....

2011-12-16T10:32:00.000-05:00

Well after a prolong spell of very mild weather... the pattern does show some sings of changing... Our overall set-up continues to feature a typical weak La Nina type pattern but with the lack of any North Atlantic blocking to allow significant cold and storminess to get going here in the eastern US... That may begin to change next week ( the week before Christmas ) some really cold air is poised to arrive this weekend an may combine with quick moving southern stream systems to get us at least some snow...

I'll admit that this pattern still is not favorable for "big" snow storms... but it is better than the warm wet weather of recent days... I do think that the pattern will finally break down by the start of the new year and allow for some weak blocking across the North Atlantic... If this can happen I think we have a chance of seeing some snow chances arrive for the first week of January...

So here are my JAN-MAR outlooks... Still think we will see an above normal snow season ( thanks to our early start) but we will likely see broken snow covers as we get thaw / freeze conditions throughout the winter... We still may have a shot at a 100" snow season here in East Surry...

One last note... Still think that a Christmas eve or Christmas Day snow event is possible... Enough cold should be in place to provide for snow... now all we need is the storm to form and get its moisture up here... before the cold peals out to the east... Time will tell...

JEZAK

LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST... INTO MID AND LATE DECEMBER...

2011-12-02T13:32:00.000-05:00

After one of the warmest Novembers in recent memory... the pattern looks to be changing to a colder and stormy theme as we head into mid and late December 2011... Here are my three week outlooks taking us to the end of 2011...

JEZAK

SNOWSTORM LASHES DOWNEAST COAST WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS.... FAIR AND MILDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...

2011-11-25T08:14:00.000-05:00

Here is the storm accumulation map from Wednesdays storm

Here at EAST SURRY we had 9.9" of snow... a new November record...

PRE-THANKSGIVING DAY SNOWSTORM TO SLAM DOWNEAST MAINE WITH HEAVY WET SNOW AND GALES...

2011-11-22T08:25:00.000-05:00

A significant winter storm is on its way to Downeast Maine... The storm will arrive during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday and will likely rage for much of Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snow fall of 6-12" is likely across much of Hancock County with lesser amounts (around 3-5" at the waters edge)... This storm will have a high impact on travel across our area... and holiday travel is not recommended on Wednesday...

Here is my latest forecast map for snowfall amounts..

A LOOK BACK AT OCTOBER 2011... VERY WARM, WET AND SNOWY

2011-11-01T19:25:00.000-04:00

JEZAK

POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS POWERFUL OCTOBER SNOWSTORM RACES INTO NOVA SCOTIA...

2011-10-30T13:56:00.001-04:00

At 1:30PM conditions at East Surry, ME

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
T: 38
Wind: NW 6 gusting to 18mph
Pressure: 29.81"RR

Power outages as of noon.
Hancock County: 2,063 homes
Washington County 8,167 homes
Penobscot County 3,328 homes

Total power outages for eastern Maine
14,724 homes

JEZAK

SNOWSTORM CONTINUES...BUT WARM GROUND KEEPING TOTALS DOWN... STORM SHOULD START TO END BY EARLY AFTERNOON....

2011-10-30T10:54:00.000-04:00

As of 10:30AM at East Surry, ME...

Conditions: Moderate Snow and Wind
T: 34
Wind: N - 10mph Gusting to 26mph
Pressure: 29.69"Hg RR

Snowfall total: 2.5"
Snow Depth: 2"

The back edge of the moderate snow is now moving into western Hancock County... Look for snow to begin to tapper by noon... with only scattered snow showers likely this afternoon... Winds will continue to be strong from the north and northwest this afternoon... gusts to 40mph likely through this evening... Total snow will range from less than 1" along the shore to 2-4" across much of the area... Totals up to 6" possible as you move well inland towards and north of Bangor.

As of 9AM snowfall reports from around the area;

Ellsworth 1.2"
Waltham 0.5"
East Surry 2.5"
Bangor 6.0"
Brooklin Trace
Dedham 1.7"

JEZAK

RECORD OCTOBER SNOW NOW CAUSING POWER OUTAGES ACROSS DOWNEAST... SNOW STILL HAVING HARD TIME ACCUMULATING WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS...

2011-10-30T07:22:00.000-04:00

As of 7AM at East Surry, ME

Conditions: Moderate Snow and wind
T: 33
Wind: NNE 15 G 24mph
Pressure: 29.62"F

Snow storm total: 2.2"
Snow Depth 2"

As of 7AM 369 customers are with out power in Hancock County... Roads are slush covered... An additional 1-3" of snow will fall this morning bringing our storm total to 3-5"... Clearly the moisture was there for more snow but the ground temperature has precluded significant accumulations... As morning continues road conditions should improve with additional solar warming..

JEZAK

CONTINUE TO UPDATE AND INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS AS MONSTER OCTOBER SNOWSTORM APPROACHES... A HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD IS IN THE MAKING FOR DOWNEAST MAINE...

2011-10-29T09:31:00.000-04:00

STORM TRACK TREND POINTS TO POSSIBLE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AM ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE... MAYBE A 100 YR OCTOBER EVENT...

2011-10-28T16:59:00.000-04:00

Updated my forecast snowfall for this possible major October snowstorm... Continued to be very concerned for significant long duration power outages and tree damage... Strong winds and heavy wet snow will make for a period of near blizzard conditions on Sunday morning...

Here is my new forecast map...

HALLOWEEN SNOWSTORM 2011... HERE IS MY FIRST FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY

2011-10-28T08:52:00.001-04:00

SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT... COLD FRIDAY... THEN OFF SHORE SNOWSTORM TO DELIVER PUNCH TO ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND.

2011-10-27T14:14:00.000-04:00

As the storm races across the southern Gulf of Maine later tonight... rain and snow showers will continue to diminish from west to east... Light snow accumulations of up to a quarter of an inch is possible mostly on grassy surfaces... Of more concern wet surfaces will freeze up late tonight... so be careful when heading out early tomorrow morning.. Beware of icy patches and slippery sidewalks and decks.

Cold high pressure will build in for Friday with highs in the lower to mid 40's... Gusty NW winds to 30 mph at times will make for wind chills to be in the 20's and 30's.

A developing coastal storm will move through the western Atlantic this weekend... likely a bit too far off shore to deliver significant snow for Maine... but this storm will have major impact for Atlantic Canada...
3-10" of heavy wet snow will likely fall over parts of Nova Scotia eastward to Newfoundland... Significant tree damage and power outages may result from the combined weight of the wet snow on trees still with autumn foliage and gusty winds to 50mph.

Snow may accumulate to 1-2" across coastal New Brunswick with some snow showers possible over coastal Downeast Maine..

So enjoy the weather since its the only weather you've got.
JEZAK

PRE-HALLOWEEN SNOWSTORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO DOWNEAST MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT...

2011-10-25T13:16:00.001-04:00

Two storms in the next few days have the chance of bringing the season's first snow flakes to the Downeast coast of Maine... While this is not uncommon for late October... (since October does average around 0.1" of snow at East Surry) a significant snowfall prior to Halloween would be an unusual event.. or treat :)

Thursday nights event looks like it will be a rain changing to wet snow before the storm and moisture departs... I would be surprised if more than a dusting of snow would accumulate since the ground is warm and the system will be pulling away as the cold air arrives so it will have little moisture / cold to work with...

Saturday night looks like a more significant event... This scenario would only play out if the storm followes a more northern track... The GFS (one of our long range forecast models does not think this will happen and pushes the storm out to sea well south of Maine... leaving us high and dry)... The EURO models are playing this up... showing Hurricane Rina pulling north towards south Florida and shifting the east coast storm north towards the mid-Atlantic... If this scenario happens then a significant heavy wet snowstorm may be possible for much of Downeast Maine...

With trees still having some foliage on them and the prospects of heavy wet snow... this could spell significant tree damage and power outages... So its something to watch as we head into the late week period... Here is a map showing the two possibilities...

So, Enjoy the weather... its the only weather you've got.
JEZAK

LONG RANGE FORECAST TAKES US INTO MID-NOVEMBER... THE MILD SPELL MAY BE ENDING AND EARLY WINTER CHILL LIKELY TO ARRIVE SOON...

2011-10-24T10:37:00.000-04:00

Well October 2011 has defiantly been a very warm month so far... With a mean temperature nearly 5 degrees above normal... and summer warmth at the beginning of the month... its about time some more seasonable weather starts to set in for the Downeast area...

Here is my three week forecast taking us out to November 20th... Looks like some colder times are a head for us...

JEZAK

LONG RANGE FORECAST UP... WARMTH LOOKS TO HOLD IN EAST WELL INTO EARLY NOVEMBER... WET TIMES MAY BE IN STORE FOR MID-OCT...

2011-10-14T12:59:00.000-04:00

Well here is my long range forecast that takes us into the middle of November... As I had posted back in mid-summer... the Autumn of 2011 looks like it will be VERY warm... and my outlook shows above normal temperatures likely to hold on here in eastern Maine into at least early November... This pattern will continue to allow for cold to slowly build into the mid-west and even the Great Lakes for a time but the East Coast will continue to be dominated by a southerly and at times almost tropical "connected" flow...

What this all means for Eastern Maine will be above normal temperatures and periods of mild rain events over the upcoming weeks... Most of the cold air will arrived as modified events... having warmed somewhat in its trip to Maine....

Here are my maps...

JEZAK

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK TAKES US INTO EARLY NOVEMBER 2011... RECENT WARM SPELL WILL TURN MORE SEASONABLE...

2011-10-11T10:09:00.000-04:00

The recent warm spell sent temperatures into the low 80's on Sunday... The high of 83 (on Sunday) set a new October record for the warmest October day on Record at East Surry... A cold front with cooler air moved across Downeast Maine late on Monday and this will transition us into more seasonable weather for the rest of the week... A hybrid - subtropical storm over Florida (that brought 3-5" of rain and winds to 60mph over the weekend) will slowly be moving northward this week.... I expect rain to arrive in Downeast Maine after mid-night on Thursday and likely last well into Friday...

Here is my long range maps... Looking like more seasonable weather for the remainder of October into early November.... Some offshore tropical moisture may still get pushed into New England later this month so we will have to watch that.... (I did not include that in my forecast... but it is still iffy if it will pan out)...

JEZAK

FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON AT EAST SURRY... HERE IS A LIST OF MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES...

2011-10-06T09:41:00.000-04:00

Morning low tempertaures across Downeast Maine

East Surry .... 33
Surry Village ... 34
Ellsworth ... 34
Brooklin ... 34
Sedgwick Ridge ... 35
Naskeag Brooklin ... 35
Bangor ... 35
Trenton Airport ... 36
Verona Island ... 36
Castine ... 38
Bar Harbor ... 39
Winter Harbor ... 39
Isle Au Haut ... 40
Brooksville ... 42
Penobscot ... 42

JEZAK

GROWING SEASON MAY END FOR MOST BY FRIDAY MORNING.... WARMING BUT DRY FOR COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND... POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY HIT EAST COAST NEXT WEEK...

2011-10-05T11:12:00.000-04:00

A lot of exciting weather to consider over the next few days.... and weeks. It is looing like our current spell of an uneventful pattern may be coming to an end...

First up is the cold and windy blast that will be entering into Maine today through Friday... Look for a spell of below normal temperatures and gusty NW winds that may reach near 40mph at times later today into Thursday. Temperatures will likely stay above freezing tonight... but with diminishing winds Thursday night... the first widespread freeze will likely occur across most of Hancock county by Friday morning... In fact many locations may be in the 20's my early Friday morning....
Next we will see a return to warm and mostly dry weather for the upcoming weekend... Temperatures will likely rebound into the lower to possibly mid 70's by Saturday and Sunday.... Inland locations may see highs reach the upper 70's where afternoon sea breezes will likely keep coastal points in the 60's... Overall the stretch of weather will be dry and pleasant for the extended period (until around Thursday 10/13)
Finally we will be watching the development of a tropical system likely off the Florida coast or in the Bahamas by late this weekend... This system is forecast to slowly track northward up the East Coast towards New England by late next week... This system may spell a renewed severe flooding event for much of the waterlogged Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US.... Strong winds may develop on the Maine coast around Friday (10/14).... So stay tuned for more forecast as we take a wild roller coaster ride in the weather department during the next few weeks...
JEZAK

THE LATEST WINTER FORECAST IS READY.... SNOWY AND COLD WILL BE THE PATTERN...

2011-10-05T10:06:00.000-04:00

Click on the image to make it bigger...

JEZAK

WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TO HOLD... BUT MUCH NEEDED RAIN DID FALL OVER THE WEEKEND...

2011-10-03T11:11:00.000-04:00

Mild and wet conditions prevailed over much of the weekend... Rainfall Saturday and Sunday totaled over 1" in most locations... The heavy rain did cause some short duration street flooding on Saturday morning... but with recent dry conditions... flooding was very minor... Here in East Surry we picked up 1.19" over the past three days...

Here is a map showing the rainfall over the past 24HRS across Hancock County... Notice the very heavy rain that occurred last night over Knox and parts of Waldo counties... The rain was briefly heavy here in East Surry around 10PM last night... with brief downpours and even some lightning being reported in Blue Hill and Southwest Harbor...

The stubborn upper level low that has been responsible for the recent spell of gloomy and mild weather was located along the Mid-Atlantic coast... Meanwhile Tropical Storm Ophelia (once a CAT 4 Hurricane with winds over 140mph over the weekend) was racing across the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland this morning...

As the upper level low begins to depart from the east coast it will drag a cold front across the region late tonight and during the day on Tuesday... Look for rain to redevelop later today and likely last for much of the day on Tuesday... Again rainfall of over 1" is possible across Downeast Maine... Thereafter... a sharp cold blast will follow with gusty NW winds developing on Wednesday... Winds may gust to near 40mph at times with temperatures falling into the low 50's by day and lows will likely reach the freezing mark by Thursday or Friday morning.... So get ready for a significant change to cooler Autumn weather!

JEZAK

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR ALL OF OCTOBER 2011... LOOKS WARM AND DRY TO START THEN SEASONABLE FOR MID TO END...

2011-10-01T08:42:00.000-04:00

Well the above normal temperatures over the last week has greatly slowed the Autumn Foliage... with only slight color at best... So far the color has been rather dull... but with more seasonable temperatures on the way for next week we should be back on track for some good color...

A rainy weekend looks to be in store for Downeast Maine... The stubborn and nearly stationary upper level low that has been parked over the Ohio Valley for nearly the last 10 days will begin to shift eastward ever so slowly this weekend... This will spread rain across New England this weekend and the rain may linger for eastern New England until early next week...

So here is my long range outlook for the next 3 weeks.

JEZAK

VERY WARM MICHAELMAS DAY IN EAST SURRY... SUMMER HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK... COOL DOWN ARRIVES BY WEEKEND...

2011-09-26T14:15:00.000-04:00

September 25th also known as Michaelmas Day brought summer heat to East Surry, ME... Temperatures officially reached 82 degrees here at the station with a heat index of 87... This set a new record for Maximum temperature and heat index for the 25th... and marked one of the latest low 80 readings here at the station...

More summer warmth continues today with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once again... Clearly this will again be in record territory... Cooler air will slowly begin to arrive by the weekend as a powerful cold front from Canada finally arrives and kicks out the heat and humidity... Hopefully it will be for good! Long term forecast and model guidance points to a more seasonable and very dry pattern taking shape by Columbus Day weekend.
JEZAK

HERE IS MY LATEST LONG RANGE FORECAST TAKING US OUT INTO LATE OCTOBER 2011.... WARMTH STILL LOOKS TO BE AROUND...

2011-09-23T14:01:00.000-04:00

Well Astronomical Autumn arrived at 5:05AM this morning... but it felt more like mid-summer here in East Surry.... With a humid... almost tropical air mass in place over much of the East Coast of the US... Our overnight low here in East Surry was 61 degrees... warm for mid-summer... remarkable for mid-September!

Muggy and warm conditions are expected to continue into the weekend and beyond... Our latest long range forecast models still are uncertain as to when we will finally return to more seasonable conditions but I'm thinking that the warmth and humidity may be around well into next week... Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to weaken over the central Atlantic.... Ophelia will continue heading NW and should miss the Lesser Antilles this weekend... I do think that Ophelia will regain some strength next week as it approaches the Bahamas and we will have to watch to see if it takes a northward turn towards the East Coast...
Here are my weekly forecasts.

JEZAK

THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TAKES US INTO MID-OCTOBER.... SEASONABLE BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS...

2011-09-20T10:37:00.000-04:00

Here is my three week outlook taking us into the middle of October... Overall late September should continue to bring seasonable to slightly milder than normal weather to the Downeast coast with very dry conditions continuing... I'm not seeing much of a change as we move into October and the dry conditions may make for increased forest fire threats by mid-October...

Here are the weekly maps...

JEZAK

TAKING A LOOK INTO EARLY OCTOBER 2011.... SIGNIFICANT COOL SPELL ON THE WAY FOR MID-SEPT... BUT TROPICAL THREAT MAY STILL LINGER OFFSHORE...

2011-09-12T14:46:00.000-04:00

Here is my latest three week forecast taking us into early October 2011... I think we will see a significant cool spell coming up later this week and lasting through much of the rest of September... The 70 degree weather over the next few days may very well be the last 70's we see until next spring... I'm still slightly concerned about the chances of a tropical system impacting parts of New England or Atlantic Canada over the next few week... but as we move into late September that chance will quickly begin to wane... We are now moving into the time of year when we could see our first big gale / Nor'easter... These storms usually bring us a good bit of rain and lashing winds... Sometimes they could be as bad a a CAT 1 hurricane...

Here are the maps...

JEZAK

COLDEST MORNING SINCE LAST SPRING... A LOOK AT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

2011-09-11T14:31:00.001-04:00

A cold morning here in East Surry... Our low was shortly before 7AM at 39 degrees...

Here is the mid-day look at hurricane and tropical storm tracks from this season... Maria still needs to be watched later this week as she will likely pass south of Maine... possibly closer than Katia did last week... I expect big surf to again return to our area with the hurricanes passage...

TAKING A LOOK AT FALL 2011... WHAT TO EXPECT INTO EARLY DECEMBER...

2011-09-07T09:53:00.002-04:00

Here is my latest long range outlook that takes us into late Autumn 2011... I think overall the variable pattern that we have seen lately with alternating bouts of very mild weather... punctuated by cool spells will continue... so when the entire Autumn is averaged out it will likely be near normal temperature wise...

As of precip... the WET conditions will likely prevail into early December 2011... I'm still concerned that the east coast or/and Atlantic Canada may be brushed by one more tropical system before hurricane season ends... I don't think Irene was "it"... I've noticed that the mosquitoes have persisted in our woods (and is is well into early September) very late this year... I don't remember them holding on so late into the season... Clearly a sign of the recent mild and wet spell that has lasted much of late August and early September. The hummingbirds have left for the season a sure sign of cooling ahead...

Here are my temperature and precip maps...

JEZAK

ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES WITH LEE FORMING IN THE GULF... KATIA IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...

2011-09-02T15:17:00.000-04:00

Here is the updated tropical storm and hurricane map for the Atlantic so far this season... we are up to the "L" name storm now with Lee forming this morning the the Gulf of Mexico... Could cause major flooding for Gulf coast this weekend...

Pleasant weather should hold for the start of the 120th Annual Blue Hill Fair but showers may arrive by late Sunday and last for the Labor Day holiday...

A LOOK BACK AT AUGUST 2011 AND METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER 2011...

2011-09-02T09:57:00.000-04:00

JEZAK

TROPICAL STORM IRENE RECAP FOR DOWNEAST MAINE

2011-08-29T09:34:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM IRENE TOTALS FROM EAST SURRY...

RAINFALL 1.62"...
PEAK WIND GUST 45MPH...
MINIMUM PRESSURE 29.18"HG...

MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING...

AS OF 7AM MONDAY MORNING OVER 10,000 HOMES WITH OUT POWER IN HANCOCK COUNTY...

5PM REPORT... POWER STILL ON!

2011-08-28T17:26:00.000-04:00

CONDITIONS AT EAST SURRY, ME

Cloudy with drizzle and mist...
T: 72
Wind: SE 12mph Gusting 25mph

Storm rainfall 1.55"
Peak Gust SE - 40mph

Minimum pressure: 29.35"hg and still falling!

JEZAK

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE AS IRENE PUSHES INTO SW NEW ENGLAND... STORMY TONIGHT FOR DOWNEAST ME...

2011-08-28T11:44:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Irene made her second landfall around 7:30AM this morning just east of NYC with winds of 75-90mph... As of mid morning strong winds were battering coastal RI and MA... At Tiverton, RI a gust to 46mph was reported with large trees down... power is out across most of RI... Significant storm tides are being observed across Narragansett Bay and the Sakonnet River of Southeastern RI...

Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive here in Downeast Maine later this afternoon.... As of 11AM nearly 1.5" of rain has already fallen here in East Surry with another 1-3" likely into the afternoon... There is already considerable flooding across our wood lot and the additional rain will likely continue to cause flooding.... Winds will likely cause many trees to uproot later today... The winds will max out tonight as Irene makes her closest path (across the western Maine mountains)... at that time winds could reach 60-65mph in gusts here in East Surry!

JEZAK

POWERFUL HURRICANE IRENE TO ARRIVE IN NEW ENGLAND LATE ON SUNDAY... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR DOWNEAST MAINE...

2011-08-25T22:42:00.000-04:00

Based on the latest model consensus... The early morning trend that pushed the hurricane track far west to near NYC has begun to readjust itself to the east... I think that Irene will come into New England with in 60 mile of New London CT as a strong CAT 1 hurricane... The hurricane will make landfall around 5PM Sunday evening...

Here is my latest forecast for wind... rain... and storm surge that I expect across New England... Irene is a large hurricane and strong winds... heavy rain and coastal flooding will occur far away from its center...

JEZAK

HURRICANE IRENE TO BRING HISTORIC RAIN AND WINDS TO NEW ENGLAND... COULD THIS BE NEW ENGLAND'S KATRINA?

2011-08-24T22:07:00.000-04:00

Our latest computer guidance continues to point to a nightmare situation for much of New England... plowing a powerful CAT 2 hurricane into Eastern Connecticut then racing it northward towards the Maine coast by late Sunday Night....

I will start by saying that this has the potential to be an historic weather event for our area.... Based on current forecast tracks this hurricane could bring life threating conditions to much of New England late this weekend into early next week...

Forecast conditions...

For Southeastern New England (Rhode Island and SE Mass) Heavy rain will overspread the area by mid-day Saturday... Rainfall of 5-9" likely (west of the hurricane track) 2-4" east of the hurricane track... Hurricane force winds develop late on Sunday afternoon Winds of 50-70mph west of the hurricane track with gusts to near 100mph possible east of the track...

For Downeast Maine... Heavy rain will overspread the area by late in the day Saturday... Rainfall of 4-8" likely (west of the storm track) 2-4" east of the hurricane track... Tropical storm conditions developing by late Sunday evening with gusts to near 60mph by late Sunday night into Monday morning...

On this track I expect significant wind damage across Downeast Maine.... Look for significant number of downed trees... roads will be blocked... rural areas may be cut off for several days.... Expect power outages on the order of several days to more than a week.... Expect significant travel difficulties due to blocked roads for several days...

THIS STORM MAY BE NEARING A 100 YEAR EVENT FOR DOWNEAST MAINE.... THIS IS A SERIOUS LIFE THREATING HURRICANE AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY.... PEOPLE IN DOWNEAST MAINE SHOULD BEGIN STORM PREPARATIONS ON THURSDAY.... AND CONTINUE TO FOLLOW LOCAL MEDIA FOR STORM UPDATES....

SOME EVACUATIONS MAY BE NESSAIRY ALONG LOW COASTAL REGIONS OF HANCOCK COUNTY....

HURRICANE IRENE TO TAKE TRACK SIMILAR TO BERTHA (1996) AND FLOID (1999)... A BLAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST...

2011-08-23T13:49:00.000-04:00

The track and intensity for hurricane Irene continues to be watched... and latest model runs are not looking good for New England... Most models now take Irene as a CAT 3 hurricane through eastern North Carolina then races it NE towards southern New England by late Sunday... The storm then could pass along or just south of the Maine coast during the day on Monday...

This track would spell high winds and torrential rainfall for much of eastern New England...

Here is my latest forecast track for the hurricane...

JEZAK

IRENE NOW A HURRICANE... LOOKS TO TARGET THE CAROLINAS BY THE WEEKEND THEN RIDE UP EAST COAST WITH FLOODING RAIN AND WIND...

2011-08-22T10:51:00.001-04:00

All eyes continue to be focused on the developing hurricane... now located west of Puerto Rico moving to the WNW towards the north coast of the Dominican Republic...

All our long range forecast models continue to trend further east with the track of Irene... with possible landfall late Friday or Saturday in South Carolina... On this track Irene may maintain much of its wind field as it races northward toward New England...

So what does this mean for Downeast Maine...

1... Winds of Tropical Storm strength are becoming more likely based on the latest forecast track... The strong winds look to arrive Monday afternoon (AUG 29th) and may last into the night... Tropical Storm force winds are considered to be 39-73mph.... If this forecast looks to come true people in Downeast Maine would need to secure outdoor objects... and prepare for significant power outages...

2... Flooding rain... Rainfall of over 4 inches are possible with this storm as it passes near Maine... Flooding... road washouts are possible... Historically many land falling tropical systems bring 6-10" of rain to our area as they begin to dissipate and transition to non-tropical systems...

3... Coastal flooding... High tides combined with storm fore winds may cause flooding of seawater along low coastal roads...

This is only an early estimate based on the latest track data... People in New England should continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Irene over the next several days and be prepared to take action if necessary...

JEZAK

IRENE HAS FORMED AND MAY BE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER FOR EAST COAST OF US NEXT WEEKEND

2011-08-21T14:00:00.000-04:00

INVEST # 97 was named Tropical Storm Irene at 7:30Pm last night... The storm packing winds of 50mph is currently located due south of the US Virgin Islands moving WNW at about 20mph.. Irene is forecasted to pass near Puerto Rico late tonight into Monday... bringing lashing wind and rain... The National Weather Service has posted a HURRICANE WARNING for Puerto Rico as Irene may intensify to a minimal hurricane just before landfall tomorrow morning... From there Irene is forecasted to move WNW towards the Dominican Republic... bringing more wind and rain to that island nation by late Monday into Tuesday... Our latest computer models continue to shift the track of Irene towards the east... this would spare much of Florida from a direct hurricane hit... I'm not ready to to say that Florida is in the "all clear" right yet as we are still too far out but a continued eastward shift in the forecast track would increase the chances for a Carolina land falling hurricane by late this week or the weekend... I think if this scenario does play out we will be looking at significant flooding up the east coast (I-95 corridor) with locally 8-10" of rain falling in spots from Florida to eastern Maine...

I've posted my latest forecast map showing the most favorable track for Irene... I think Irene has the chance to make landfall in the Carolinas as a strong CAT 2 or even a CAT 3 (winds over 115mph)... That would lead to a period of gales for the Downeast coast of Maine when she (Irene) made her passage on Monday evening...

JEZAK

LONG RANGE FORECAST TAKES US INTO MID-SEPTEMBER... VERY ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES BUT WILL IT IMPACT THE US?

2011-08-20T15:18:00.000-04:00

A cool and wet August continues to unfold here across coastal Downeast Maine... In stark contrast to the very warm... dry and sunny July we had... August is proving to be quite the opposite.

As of August 19th we are running about 1.8 degrees cooler than normal for August and we have only seen two days with high temperatures that have reached the 80 degree mark... The high so far this month has been 81 degrees!

Rainfall has been abundant with the monthly total just shy of 4" as of the 19th (3.99")...

Looking at the long range models... It look like the cool weather will last for the next several weeks... September should arrive with cooler than normal temperatures but rainfall will likely be normal (with the exception of any unforeseen visit from the tropics)...

Here are my 3 week outlook... followed by the latest Hurricane tracking map update).

JEZAK

VERY COOL WEDNESDAY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD FOR COLD HIGH...

2011-08-11T09:21:00.000-04:00

A cool Wednesday was observed across much of Maine... The high temperature here at East Surry only managed to reach 62 degrees... This set a new record cool high temperature... replacing 68 degrees set in 2002...

Temperatures should rebound to more seasonable levels today ... with highs reaching the mid 70's... Warmer weather will arrive for the start of the weekend with highs nearing 80 by Saturday...

JEZAK

WINTER 2011-2012 SNOWFALL FORECAST... HERE IS MY FIRST FORECAST FOR THE DECEMBER-MARCH PERIOD...

2011-08-10T09:07:00.000-04:00

Here is my first Snowfall outlook for the Northeastern US for the upcoming winter season of 2011-2012... I think the main factors for this winter will be the redevelopment of La Nina in the South Pacific...(this will lead to significant cold out breaks and strong cyclone development for the east coast) The difference from last winter will the the lack of the "stubborn" Greenland Low that parked it self up off the Canadian Maritimes last winter. It was this feature that resulted in the mild and snow less winter for the northern half of Maine... With this low not present... I think the "county" will see a more traditional snowy winter... I think a storm track will favor rapidly developing storms off the mid-Atlantic that will race northward along the I-95 corridor.. This track would favor more mixing for the Downeast coast with heavy snow just inland... So for East Surry I'm thinking slightly above normal snowfall likely in the 90" to 100" range by early April 2012... Here is my forecast map...

JEZAK

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR A SUNNY TUESDAY... ANOTHER RAIN MAKER ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS...

2011-08-09T07:16:00.000-04:00

A sunny and mild August day is expected across the Downeast coast today... Look for afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 70's under mostly sunny skies...

Low pressure in the Ohio Valley will be approaching western New England overnight tonight... this system will spread clouds into the Downeast area by late evening with rain likely to arrive by early Wednesday morning... Rainfall of 0.75" to 1.25" is possible across much of Maine... with the still dry conditions for July I'm not expecting any flooding issues with this amount... Temperatures will be much below normal on Wednesday with highs only in the mid to upper 60's with a breezy east wind...

Skies will clear out by mid-day Thursday with milder conditions as temperatures rise back into the 70's...

Have a great Tuesday...
Mike

REMNANTS OF EMILY FLOUNDER OFF FLORIDA COAST...NO THREAT TO USA... LONG RANGE FORECAST TAKES US INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND...

2011-08-06T13:59:00.000-04:00

Well Emily was a bust... The system never really could get going and was pulled apart by strong upper level winds and lots of dry air... Once it arrived at the coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti... the high mountains finished her off... Now all that is left is a mid-level swirl of showers and storms off the SE Florida coast... The system still has the potential to develop into a depression as it crosses the Bahamas later today... but I don't think it will regain tropical storm status again... Elsewhere in the tropics all is "very" quite... SO I think we will see a few days of rest before the season really begins to ramp up towards the middle and end of August...

I have posted my long range forecast that takes us out to the start of the Labor Day weekend... I think August will go down as being cooler than normal... both cloud cover and rainfall has already been much more prevail this month (Than is was in our sweltering hot and sunny July) and we are only 5 days into it... So I think Meteorological Summer 2011 will end up having near to slightly below normal temperatures... ( the really hot July will be off-set by a cool June and August) with normal to slight below normal rainfall ( the dry July will likely be off-set by the wet June and August)... Lets see if I'm right... My early spring forecast was for temperatures to be cooler than normal and it to be drier than normal...

JEZAK

EMILY TO BE A WATCHER THIS WEEKEND FOR SE COAST.... COOL AND UNSETTLED START TO AUGUST FOR DOWNEAST MAINE...

2011-08-03T13:47:00.000-04:00

A wet and cool start to August 2011... a nice change from the hot dry July we just experienced. Tuesday brought some of the heaviest rain seen in many weeks to East Surry... Early morning thunderstorms not only provided the area with a significant display of lightning they also produced a two day rain total of 1.20" (1st-2nd)...

Look for cool temperatures and periodic rain showers to persist today and again (only a slight chance) on Thursday... before we return to a more summer-like pattern with temperatures near normal and more sunny skies for Friday into the weekend...

All eyes continue to watch tropical storm Emily which is located just south of the Dominican Republic... Emily continues to struggle with wind sheer and unfavorable upper atmospheric conditions... It has maximum sustained winds of 50mph... The storm is expected to pass over Haiti on Thursday... and if it survives the mountains of Haiti and eastern Cuba... it will emerge in the southern Bahamas where conditions would be more favorable for further development... So it remains to be seen how much if any impact this storm will have on the US... For now the east coast of Florida seems to have the highest risk of seeing some impacts form the storm this weekend...

Here is the latest Hurricane Center map showing the activity so far this season...

JEZAK

A LOOK BACK AT JULY 2011

2011-08-01T16:40:00.000-04:00

JEZAK

LONG TERM FORECAST TAKES US INTO LATE SUMMER... COOLER TIMES EXPECTED FOR AUGUST IN DOWNEAST MAINE....

2011-07-29T14:31:00.000-04:00

Here is my latest long range forecast that takes us out to the very end of August... Looking at the long range models... I think August will tend to be cooler than normal... and likely much cooler than July was... I am concerned that rainfall will continue to be below normal... continuing the threat for forest fire and low ground water levels... We will have to watch how the pattern develops for tropical systems by the end of August... into early September... Still think the greatest threat from a fast moving hurricane will be Atlantic Canada... Here is my forecast for the next 3 weeks...

JEZAK

VERY HOT WEATHER STARTS TO DEPART... STILL VERY DRY...

2011-07-24T11:40:00.000-04:00

Here is a look at a few graphs of Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature here at East Surry... Notice that the soil moisture is approaching 50 CB placing us in Dry to very Dry conditions... Soil moisture is measured at 8" depth... I also included the daily evaporation... now over 2.25" for July! as well as the soil temperature at 4", 8" and 20"... things are warming us and drying out!

JEZAK